I’ve had it with you motherfuckers posting screenshots with no context at all of SPY in the last 100 years or some shit. At least have the decency to claim you’re doing some gay astrology technical analysis bs on it so you can get your ass scolded in the comment section. This place is about retarded DD and losing actual money, keep the fucking discussions as to how far you think this market will sink in the daily thread. This place has become such a fucking shitshow that yall think the people over at r/investing are part of the fucking system that you despise so much. Now you’re scared for your initial $500 investment and come here to ask the fucking apes for confirmation bias by posting a screenshot of a fucking google search stop that jesus christ😤
Edit: If i got a penny for every “Username checks out” comment I’d have like 10 pennies just from this post, fuck that shit too.
The federal reserve bank of New York reports that during open market operations conducted daily, reverse repos were over 2 trillion for the first time ever on 5/23/22.
BBAI - Great set-up for this week, 1m float verified.. but awaits a catalyst
The Float - confirmed 1m
Firstly, the float. In my last post, I noted the float was around 1m, but that Ortex had said it was 4m (literally seconds after me posting my DD).
There was a somewhat contentious twitter thread between some BBAI bulls and Ortex. Ortex thought the float was 4m, others thought it was 1m. Well, upon further review, Ortex agreed that the float is 1m.
The ramifications of a confirmed low float?
- The stock is clearly illiquid.. but it's nice to know that 3m shares of outflow can't (in theory) come out of nowhere, should the price rapidly rise.
- The SI of approx 780k shares implies a short % float of 78%. That's pretty high. Makes sense CTB is 720%. These numbers could put this stock in the spotlight, and on screeners. One minor caveat is the 1m float number is unlikely to be fixed in the standard datasets. (But this could work in our favor.. MMs might also operate off this higher float number.)
- Being in both the "high-SI" and "low-float" and "optionable" category makes it more likely there's a pile-on at some point, fueled by the squeeze-hungry masses.
None are particularly ground-breaking, but all play in my favor. So, I definitely like this news.
OI and Gamma
Let's see what happened yesterday:
Look at 1-day change. May OTMs closed... good news
Basically, a lot of the OTM options were closed, presumably on the brief ramp up. For me, that represents a lot of sellers that left the options market. The magnitude of the corresponding dip yesterday wasn't even that bad, all things considered. So, I like this.
We see some addition to June $10 and $12.50 .. that'll boost gamma for next week. I still think these are relatively cheap and worth the gamble. If this ticker catches on, their IVs are sure to skyrocket... especially if MMs start getting defensive.
We're left with this breakout:
Breakout of OI per expiration
And here's the latest gamma:
Latest gamma... just absolutely insane
The gamma is clearly insane, but I don't really think it's going to count for much. Today is OPEX, and MMs aren't "forced" to hedge. If price creeps up above $10.00, yeah, they'll lose a bit of money from the ITM options, but that's better than trying to scoop up shares and furiously running the price up.
What's more interesting to me is the gamma on Monday:
Deltaflux as it will be on Monday
With the Mays expiring, there is still plenty of gamma here. Remember, >0.30% is considered high... so 3.50% is just insane. And relative to the daily volume? It's nuclear.
It will be a real game of chicken against the MMs -- do they want to risk the price running up and taking fat losses, or do they want to hedge? Can they even hedge? There is simply no liquidity here... so they kind of have their backs against the wall, hoping that share price doesn't rise up.
I don't think MMs are hedging very much here. They are content to sell calls, thinking that retail will pass them around to one another, and eventually the MMs will be the only ones willing to buy them back at a big discount.
But... the stock is so illiquid, that I just don't see how they can be selling them for 150% IVs.. it makes no sense. That seems like quite a large gamble on no real catalyst happening to the stock.
Without MMs hedging, we're stuck at the familiar "retail gambling on retail piling on" conundrum. And if retail only apes into options, well, nothing will happen... it'll just be a game of hot potato with options, and whales might try to slosh the underlying around in an attempt to sell their calls at a favorable price to "greater fools". You can play that game too... trying to sell your calls when the price jolts up.
What I'm hoping for is any/all of these three things:
- A very slow trickle upwards. This could be because there are no sellers.. the stock is in a status and is only seeing inflows.. so it'll trickle up. Maybe retail "holds the jewels" here. If this happens, at some point MMs may start to hedge, or they'll offer to buy back calls at higher IVs.
Some sudden in-flow and a big price spike offering liquidity. This could be either:
- A whale that already has calls and decides to make things exciting
- Ticker picks up traction on social media / discords / whatever
Shorts cover. IMO, normally very unlikely -- they are likely fundamentals-based and can weather the storm. However, during this highly volatile bear market, they might choose to bail out early due to other stressed positions. So, I'd upgrade this from "very unlikely" to just "unlikely".
MMs get caught offsides.
The first two possibilities already make getting June calls worth it, IMO. A market rally, a squeeze-mania on other stocks, etc... lots of things could draw interest here. I think it has the best set-up to pull in that crowd.
But #4 would be the jackpot.
It's entirely possible MMs are wholly unaware of the low float and low liquidity.
Admittedly, I don't think it's likely -- they've encountered dozens of optionable SPAC tickers in the past -- but it's possible:
- The stock has persistently had low daily volume. From MMs point of view, that means less likelihood of a high-volume / high-volatility day.
- They might have the wrong float.. off by a factor of 400%. Getting the float requires manual labor to deduce. Yahoo and others report it as 4m, and thus MMs could be operating off the same dataset. That would mean they are, again, overestimating the liquidity by quite a large amount.
- MMs might be on autopilot. Given the above, if the price does spike, even from retail FOMO or a whale, MMs might just auto-flip the switch and say: "we don't know what's going on, let's just hedge a bit before this gets out of hand".
MMs have their own risk tolerances. Even if they're aware of the situation, at some point they might be willing to throw in the towel and take an L on this.. because 49/50 times they take a W on other tickers in the same bucket (SPAC, low-ish float, retail-driven) that never play out against them.
I'd find it hard to believe they're paying close attention to situations like these, given what's going on elsewhere in the market lately.
The Wildcard (S1 effect)
BBAI filed an amended S1... again. It contained quite a few changes, so I personally doubt an "effect" comes through soon. BBAI has been pending an effect for quite some time and nothing has come through.
However.. it's always possible.
I'm trying to find out just how many shares would become unlocked if/when it occurs.. but I think from a pure sentiment standpoint it would probably be a killer. So... consider this a bet action takes place before an effect.
My fave analyst just said this after I bought puts. it’s usually is green Tuesday but I’ll take the hit