r/wallstreetbets 3h ago Helpful Wholesome

Daily Discussion What Are Your Moves Tomorrow, May 24, 2022

163 Upvotes

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r/wallstreetbets 2d ago Take My Energy Snek Silver Helpful Wholesome

Earnings Thread Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for the week beginning May 23rd, 2022

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1.0k Upvotes

r/wallstreetbets 14h ago Wholesome Silver Helpful

🔮WallStreetBets Predictions Tournament for May 2022🔮

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119.8k Upvotes

r/wallstreetbets 6h ago Wholesome Take My Energy Wholesome Seal of Approval Silver Helpful

Meme When your friend starts driving at 150 mph and says “I bought Shopify at $1530 bro…”

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r/wallstreetbets 2h ago All-Seeing Upvote This Silver

Meme It's official: Wells Fargo will be the first bank to fall.

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753 Upvotes

r/wallstreetbets 9h ago Silver Gold Helpful Snek

Chart We're going to the moon. this useful chart proves it

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r/wallstreetbets 8h ago Silver

Meme Every single time

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r/wallstreetbets 4h ago

Meme Real estate agents must feel like the biggest clowns nowadays.

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726 Upvotes

r/wallstreetbets 7h ago Helpful

Meme Don’t tell her

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1.1k Upvotes

r/wallstreetbets 3h ago Wholesome

Meme In this market.....

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441 Upvotes

r/wallstreetbets 7h ago

Meme Ahhhhh markets green

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605 Upvotes

r/wallstreetbets 7h ago

Meme Gamestonks!

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634 Upvotes

r/wallstreetbets 5h ago Silver

Meme Pretty much me everyday

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292 Upvotes

r/wallstreetbets 57m ago Doot 🎵 Doot

Meme This Is About SNAP FYI

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r/wallstreetbets 2h ago

Meme The duality of "Due Dilligence"

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144 Upvotes

r/wallstreetbets 1h ago Helpful

Meme SNAP back to reality

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r/wallstreetbets 1h ago

Meme DC attorney general sues Mark Zuckerberg, claims CEO was 'personally involved' in privacy failures

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r/wallstreetbets 12h ago Silver Helpful Wholesome All-Seeing Upvote Pride

Discussion STOP POSTING USELESS CHART SCREENSHOTS ON WSB!!!

710 Upvotes

I’ve had it with you motherfuckers posting screenshots with no context at all of SPY in the last 100 years or some shit. At least have the decency to claim you’re doing some gay astrology technical analysis bs on it so you can get your ass scolded in the comment section. This place is about retarded DD and losing actual money, keep the fucking discussions as to how far you think this market will sink in the daily thread. This place has become such a fucking shitshow that yall think the people over at r/investing are part of the fucking system that you despise so much. Now you’re scared for your initial $500 investment and come here to ask the fucking apes for confirmation bias by posting a screenshot of a fucking google search stop that jesus christ😤

Edit: If i got a penny for every “Username checks out” comment I’d have like 10 pennies just from this post, fuck that shit too.


r/wallstreetbets 6h ago

News Reverse repos hit 2T for first time ever

235 Upvotes

The federal reserve bank of New York reports that during open market operations conducted daily, reverse repos were over 2 trillion for the first time ever on 5/23/22.

https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/desk-operations/reverse-repo


r/wallstreetbets 11h ago

Meme Monday in these days…

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623 Upvotes

r/wallstreetbets 7h ago All-Seeing Upvote Take My Energy Narwhal Salute Wholesome Seal of Approval Stonks Rising Burning Cash Gold Helpful

DD Big Bear with Big Bull Implications ($BBAI)

514 Upvotes

This has all been posted by u/Pennyether, I'm just relaying the message to all you apes so you can get in on this amazing play (see original posts Here and Here).

BBAI - Great set-up for this week, 1m float verified.. but awaits a catalyst

The Float - confirmed 1m

Firstly, the float. In my last post, I noted the float was around 1m, but that Ortex had said it was 4m (literally seconds after me posting my DD).

There was a somewhat contentious twitter thread between some BBAI bulls and Ortex. Ortex thought the float was 4m, others thought it was 1m. Well, upon further review, Ortex agreed that the float is 1m.

Here's their correction

https://preview.redd.it/dp295fnru8191.png?width=612&format=png&auto=webp&s=36c04a7886c63b92283803d7ff05bcb33653117b

The ramifications of a confirmed low float?

  1. The stock is clearly illiquid.. but it's nice to know that 3m shares of outflow can't (in theory) come out of nowhere, should the price rapidly rise.
  2. The SI of approx 780k shares implies a short % float of 78%. That's pretty high. Makes sense CTB is 720%. These numbers could put this stock in the spotlight, and on screeners. One minor caveat is the 1m float number is unlikely to be fixed in the standard datasets. (But this could work in our favor.. MMs might also operate off this higher float number.)
  3. Being in both the "high-SI" and "low-float" and "optionable" category makes it more likely there's a pile-on at some point, fueled by the squeeze-hungry masses.

None are particularly ground-breaking, but all play in my favor. So, I definitely like this news.

OI and Gamma

Let's see what happened yesterday:

Look at 1-day change. May OTMs closed... good news

Basically, a lot of the OTM options were closed, presumably on the brief ramp up. For me, that represents a lot of sellers that left the options market. The magnitude of the corresponding dip yesterday wasn't even that bad, all things considered. So, I like this.

We see some addition to June $10 and $12.50 .. that'll boost gamma for next week. I still think these are relatively cheap and worth the gamble. If this ticker catches on, their IVs are sure to skyrocket... especially if MMs start getting defensive.

We're left with this breakout:

https://preview.redd.it/8tzkc71wv8191.png?width=1484&format=png&auto=webp&s=cd65e09611afb20e13972e60fde10185064c0d26

Breakout of OI per expiration

And here's the latest gamma:

https://preview.redd.it/h2288lrwv8191.png?width=1189&format=png&auto=webp&s=e7fc6e4629f6080554724a53a34ab5141c9e6c2e

Latest gamma... just absolutely insane

The gamma is clearly insane, but I don't really think it's going to count for much. Today is OPEX, and MMs aren't "forced" to hedge. If price creeps up above $10.00, yeah, they'll lose a bit of money from the ITM options, but that's better than trying to scoop up shares and furiously running the price up.

What's more interesting to me is the gamma on Monday:

https://preview.redd.it/t0w670dxv8191.png?width=1191&format=png&auto=webp&s=de75fa2bd19cbfadf9fc5809713e34386f1ea0e7

Deltaflux as it will be on Monday

With the Mays expiring, there is still plenty of gamma here. Remember, >0.30% is considered high... so 3.50% is just insane. And relative to the daily volume? It's nuclear.

It will be a real game of chicken against the MMs -- do they want to risk the price running up and taking fat losses, or do they want to hedge? Can they even hedge? There is simply no liquidity here... so they kind of have their backs against the wall, hoping that share price doesn't rise up.

What's next?

I don't think MMs are hedging very much here. They are content to sell calls, thinking that retail will pass them around to one another, and eventually the MMs will be the only ones willing to buy them back at a big discount.

But... the stock is so illiquid, that I just don't see how they can be selling them for 150% IVs.. it makes no sense. That seems like quite a large gamble on no real catalyst happening to the stock.

Without MMs hedging, we're stuck at the familiar "retail gambling on retail piling on" conundrum. And if retail only apes into options, well, nothing will happen... it'll just be a game of hot potato with options, and whales might try to slosh the underlying around in an attempt to sell their calls at a favorable price to "greater fools". You can play that game too... trying to sell your calls when the price jolts up.

What I'm hoping for is any/all of these three things:

  1. A very slow trickle upwards. This could be because there are no sellers.. the stock is in a status and is only seeing inflows.. so it'll trickle up. Maybe retail "holds the jewels" here. If this happens, at some point MMs may start to hedge, or they'll offer to buy back calls at higher IVs.
  2. Some sudden in-flow and a big price spike offering liquidity. This could be either:

    1. A whale that already has calls and decides to make things exciting
    2. Ticker picks up traction on social media / discords / whatever
  3. Shorts cover. IMO, normally very unlikely -- they are likely fundamentals-based and can weather the storm. However, during this highly volatile bear market, they might choose to bail out early due to other stressed positions. So, I'd upgrade this from "very unlikely" to just "unlikely".

  4. MMs get caught offsides.

The first two possibilities already make getting June calls worth it, IMO. A market rally, a squeeze-mania on other stocks, etc... lots of things could draw interest here. I think it has the best set-up to pull in that crowd.

But #4 would be the jackpot.

It's entirely possible MMs are wholly unaware of the low float and low liquidity.

Admittedly, I don't think it's likely -- they've encountered dozens of optionable SPAC tickers in the past -- but it's possible:

  1. The stock has persistently had low daily volume. From MMs point of view, that means less likelihood of a high-volume / high-volatility day.
  2. They might have the wrong float.. off by a factor of 400%. Getting the float requires manual labor to deduce. Yahoo and others report it as 4m, and thus MMs could be operating off the same dataset. That would mean they are, again, overestimating the liquidity by quite a large amount.
  3. MMs might be on autopilot. Given the above, if the price does spike, even from retail FOMO or a whale, MMs might just auto-flip the switch and say: "we don't know what's going on, let's just hedge a bit before this gets out of hand".

MMs have their own risk tolerances. Even if they're aware of the situation, at some point they might be willing to throw in the towel and take an L on this.. because 49/50 times they take a W on other tickers in the same bucket (SPAC, low-ish float, retail-driven) that never play out against them.

I'd find it hard to believe they're paying close attention to situations like these, given what's going on elsewhere in the market lately.

The Wildcard (S1 effect)

BBAI filed an amended S1... again. It contained quite a few changes, so I personally doubt an "effect" comes through soon. BBAI has been pending an effect for quite some time and nothing has come through.

However.. it's always possible.

I'm trying to find out just how many shares would become unlocked if/when it occurs.. but I think from a pure sentiment standpoint it would probably be a killer. So... consider this a bet action takes place before an effect.


r/wallstreetbets 1h ago Wholesome

Meme Down We Go

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r/wallstreetbets 3h ago

Chart Stock Market recap for 5-23-2022

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110 Upvotes

r/wallstreetbets 23h ago Helpful Wholesome Bravo! Helpful (Pro) Ternion All-Powerful Silver

Meme waiting for the bounce on lightning?

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5.2k Upvotes

r/wallstreetbets 2h ago

News Yessss! Bought Puts today:Cramer says Wells Fargo has the potential to be most explosive stock in the s&p 500

73 Upvotes

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/23/investing-club-cramer-says-wells-fargo-has-the-potential-to-be-the-most-explosive-stock-in-the-sp-500.html

My fave analyst just said this after I bought puts. it’s usually is green Tuesday but I’ll take the hit


r/wallstreetbets 19h ago

Meme It will go to zero any time this week

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1.7k Upvotes

r/wallstreetbets 22h ago Wholesome Take My Power Chad Silver Gold Helpful

Meme Time to get back to work.

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3.2k Upvotes